It has been a tough and grueling winter in North Conway. The snow has piled high, the wind has blown sharply, and the temperature has dropped like a large boulder at times. Several months ago, we were all dreaming for wintry conditions. Mother Nature certainly granted our wish by providing such circumstances with a level of high intensity. Due to this, many individuals in the Mount Washington Valley now wonder how much longer this winter will last and if it will continue in a strong or weak stance. Believe it or not, the answer to such questions may lie within the legend of our furry friend, the groundhog.
When thinking of Pennsylvania, what comes to your mind? Off the top of my mind, I can think of the Heroes of September 11th, the Liberty Bell, and Punxsutawney Phil. The first two have important significance to all of our lives, but where does Punxsutawney Phil come into play? This very large word with a rather common name is the foundation to a classic American folklore, meteorological recognition, and the most famous groundhog of them all. February 2 is a special date on the calendar that celebrates Phil's existence, his weather prediction, and also recognizes the science of meteorology.
Hollywood movies, television interviews, and diplomatic visits have filled the schedule of Phil, the groundhog. How did this frenzy begin? Folk legends with animals have always captivated citizens of many countries. Well before 1000 A.D. in Europe, the hedgehog, bear, and rabbit would always awake from hibernation in the middle of February. The residents of Europe would watch to see if the animals came out for spring or waited another month in their dens. If the animals stayed awake for spring, the Europeans believed winter was over. To the contrary, if the animals waited another month in their dens, the Europeans believed that they were only halfway through winter. When the European settlers arrived into North America, they continued their belief and set aside a special day for the occasion, which would ultimately become Groundhog Day.
North American legend has it that if a shadow appears under the groundhog then winter will continue for six weeks. However, if no shadow appears then winter is broken. Is there any validity behind this legend? Unfortunately, the forecast of Phil and his cousins, Troy and Willie, have no merit. It is interesting to note that if a meteorologist used the groundhogs to forecast the weather on a persistent basis, they would have a 60 percent chance of obtaining correct forecasts at mid-latitude locations.
Despite their accuracy, the groundhogs have produced a weather prediction for the past one hundred sixteen years. What did they forecast this year? If Phil could talk, he would say "six more weeks of winter weather." Meteorologists and myself believe he could easily be on the money. However, knowing Mother Nature and North Conway's weather, don't be surprised if the region is swathed with wintry conditions into April.