Mother Nature may decide to throw another round of abnormal weather into the Mount Washington Valley region by the end of the year. Certainly, the drought situation in and around North Conway is already enough to deal with. The forthcoming stretch of abnormal atmospheric events is known as the El Nino. In order to discover what impact the El Nino could have on North Conway, it is important to understand the basics of the event.
What continues to intrigue myself, as well as many others, is the fact that the El Nino begins not in the air, but in the water. The Pacific Ocean continuously cycles through warm and cool periods. During normal conditions, west to east winds that blow along the equatorial line warms the water in the western Pacific Ocean, which forces cool water to rise toward the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Every few years, the trade winds change and allow the pool of warm water to move eastward, which blocks the rising cold water. Due to this, the warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean begins, marking the birth of the El Nino.
The warmth in the eastern Pacific Ocean not only changes oceanic conditions, but also the atmosphere's energy balance. The warm water is a key player in the El Nino for the enhancement of moisture and thunderstorms. The thunderstorms feed upon moisture and wind energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Influencing the jet stream winds, the moisture and thunderstorms move eastward, which helps to change the jet stream. The change brings storms on different paths and upsets the normal patterns of wet and dry weather.
The developmental signs of the current El Nino were originally observed during the first week of 2002. By the beginning of March, signs had significantly strengthened that El Nino was set for another round of abnormal weather. Increased rainfall along the South American coastline, as well as a water temperature rise of four degrees, had further strengthened the scientist's data that the El Nino was continuing to grow. Those who reside in Peru have reported that the beginnings of the new El Nino has had significant impact on their fishing industry.
The impact of the El Nino in North Conway is predicted to be minimal. In fact, the chance is very slim that the phenomenon will have any impact through autumn. Historically, El Nino's have produced wetter then normal winters, which could be good news for the skiers, but whether it falls as snow is a very big question. Also, a very big question is how strong the El Nino will be. Whether the El Nino turns out to be minimal or significant, research will continue onward as the scientists learn more crucial aspects to what is behind the El Nino.